Predicting the Future and Overfitting
When we see a bunch of data points, we usually draw a straight line through them in the Ordinary Least Squares method and come to a prediction. We don’t overfit by drawing a polynomial spline through each of the points and then predict. That is because the Ordinary Least Squares approach is statistically motivated. Similarly, when we tell stories to inform each other of information that may predict the future,...
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